CEOChair, I like the chart and the technical analysis you posted...

CEOChair, I like the chart and the technical analysis you posted on Senex.  Yes, I agree with what you did.  Instead of just giving our forum friends thefish, we should show them how we fish, so that we can all learn from eachother. 

And, tjamuna1, you have my respect too.  Most people feel jealous about other people’sachievement, but you are big-hearted enough to accept that and humble enough toask and learn from them. 

Let me see, so CEOChair, you sold Senex at 50c and that was around earlyOct 2018. And, that was before a few significant de-risk had taken place.  For Senex, first, we must understand, it is the E&Pstock in the market with the lowest EV/2P at the moment.  Not all 2P reserves are the same.  Some are hard to be monetized.  One example is Horizontal Oil’s ‘stranded’gas fields in Papua New Guinea, and the continuous delays in commercializingthem.  Senex’s 2P gas reserves are ofhigh quality due to their exposure to the strong east coast gas demand and alsodue to their deliverability.

For Senex, the market places much of its valuation in theundeveloped 2P gas assets.  (Notwithstandingthe fact that Senex also has some valuable and good oil producing assets.)  Hence, one key to its share price performancelies in the de-risk and delivery of its main gas projects.  (The de-risk is important and one of thereasons that Cooper Energy has performed extraordinarily well recently isbecause it has managed to de-risk sooner than Senex.)

Since early Oct18, when CEOChair sold his shares at 50c, a fewsignificant de-risk had actually happened.  First, the financial close of the $150 mildebt facility in late Oct18.  Then, the commencementof gas facility contruction at Roma North on Nov18.  And, most recently, the good ramping up ofRoma North which proved that the company’s gas assets were actually deliverable.  On Dec18, Senex had also added anotherimportant gas asset, Gemba, which has the potential to delivery gas of 8Tj/dayor some 0.5 mmboe per year.     

Simply put, compare to early Oct18 wheneverything was just talks, now Senex has the funds to seriously monetizing itsgas assets.  More importantly, it has managedto prove that those gas assets are actually productive and deliverable.  Earnings will be stronger quarter afterquarter as the monetization process takes place, helping by the production ofmore new oil wells along the way.

All these leads to my one question for CEOChair.  So, CEO, knowing the future potentials ofSenex now, as an investor who relies heavily on technical analysis fordecisions, what will you do if the market corrects itself tomorrow and bringsdown Senex with it?  If Senex falls belowits price support (next will be the 50-SMA, the MACD is turning too) or even yourstop-loss point, are you going to sell first and buy back later at moretechnically confirmed upward prices (like what technical investors do), or areyou going to hold and ride it out, or even average down on lower prices (likewhat value investors do)?  And, why?  Of course we know that a real bear market isnot going to happen soon, so I’m just taking about a correction, which could bea minor one or a bigger one. 

The reason I ask CEOChair this question is that I want to learn fromgood technical investors on how they make good buy/sell decisions, so that myselfand our forum friends can improve too. 

For other forum friends, what are you going todo if market corrects and Senex falls 10% tomorrow, and why?  Please share your thoughts so we can learnfrom each other.