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Q3 will fly, Q2 will be mild, page-12

  1. 20 Posts.
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    Stock market crash? Based on what, Doctor?  


    Yes, major economies are slowing, but this is the news right now and not the news in the next few months.


    To have a recession, we got to have 3 things, a slowdown of government expenditure, slowdown of consumer expenditure and slowdown of business expenditure --- that is "uncontrollable".


    But in a world when the following things are happening, how could there be a recession right now?


    • US is starting to end its liquidity tightening (Janet Yellen said yesterday it’s ‘very possible’ the Fed has made its last rate hike of this cycle)
    • The strong US's employment rate and private consumption are not going to dive suddenly
    • The US mortgage rates have been falling continuously in the past few weeks
    • China is easing liquidity and starting a major tax cut that is of unprecedented size
    • Europe central bank is keeping interest rates near zero
    • $USD, Oil prices and major raw material prices are falling (another form of tax-cut)
    • The stock-market-sensitive US president Trump's final election will be held on Nov 2020


    With all major central banks in world either ceasing to tighten or starting to ease, and some governments planning for more stimulus, how possible is the slowdown in government expenditure, consumer expenditure and business expenditure be "uncontrollable"?  These people had successfully salvage the 2007-08 world financial crisis.  We are not having any major crisis now like 2008, so how possible is that the people that can salvage a world crisis, cannot salvage a mere '"slowdown" now? 


    I could be wrong, but Doctor, please shed me some light.  










 
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