q for michaelirish on ceu, page-3

An intial post



Londoner

Thanks for your question. I know I am not the best person to answer this question.


Some initial considerations:
1. Strong population growth forecast – at least an additional 1 million residents by 2026 (25% growth)

High reliance on motor vehicle (78%
2. use cars to get to work)…………….no railways planned.
3. Concession to 2043
4. CP2 has studied Toll Roads and particularly loves CEU


At the end of the day any investment is about REVENUE and EXPENSES and their reliability and predictability.
As I understand it the following is CEU’s current debt and post refinancing in 2010 and the interest charged (8% I have assumed.



Debt (now) $2,024,000,000

post 2010 $1,387,000,000
Interest $161,920,000
post 2010 $110,960,000




I have assumed the traffic figures for May 2009 with no increase. They have cash in the bank.
I have made no mention of expenses. Others can add to this picture. It is just a start.




Actual Average Gross Yearly Toll Revenue $178,287,291


CASH $637,000,000

Interest $50,960,000

interest post 2010 $18,960,000




1. Overrall this not a pretty picture.
2. At the moment CEU is sailing close to the wind
3. We are witnessing a complete reappraisal of the investment fundamentals of CEU
4. It is NOT the income generating vehicle its creators called in the BEGINNING.
5. After about 5 Years CEU will be a veritable CASH COW with its LOWER DEBT , increased car patronage , and CPI linked toll increases
6. And this goes on until 2043