What are people's thoughts about the likelihood of RCY going into administration in the short-medium term?
For me just looking briefly at the figures, it's hard to see how they can turn a profit.
Using very rough back of envelope calculation for their income and expenses, I get:
Income (rough - ignores GST, LCV's HCV's etc): 27,000 trips per day @ $2 per trip = $54,000 365 days @ $54,000 per day = $19.7m per year
Expenses: (from latest investor presentation) = $141m per year.
I know Clem7 is in ramp up, discounted tolling period, etc but looking at those numbers there's no way they can push their traffic figures high enough to cover their costs.
Another strong indicator: 3c share price, $22m market cap, $1.3 billion debt. If there's any real hope for RCY avoiding insolvency, you would think the share price would be much higher than 3c.
Their financial distress and low share price means raising equity is out of the question.
Based on the above I can't see how they can avoid administration.
RCY Price at posting:
2.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
