Originally posted by JonnoH
If you bother to read further, the PBO said they were surprised with the 500 mill difference given that they BOTH had basically the SAME behavioural responses.
They suggest a possibility that Rice Warners baseline is incorrect as they don't have access to the level of ATO data that Treasury has.
For Rice Warner to suggest (like you and a few others here) that the PBO didn't take account of behavioural changes is bordering on the ridiculous and inept imo.
"If you bother to read further, the PBO said they were surprised with the 500 mill difference"
If you had bothered to read further in that response to questions on notice, this is what you would have seen:
"Rice Warner’s analysis implied asimilar impact on revenue as the PBO’s behavioural assumptions. For instance, the PBO considered that when a self-managed superannuation fund sellsor transfers its Australian equities to an Australian Prudential Regulation Authority(APRA) fund in a net taxpaying position, this response offsets the revenue gain, but ifthe equities are sold to a foreign investor, there is no offset to revenue. In net terms,the impact of our behavioural assumption for self-managed superannuation funds onthe estimated revenue gain is consistent with that of Rice Warner at around 20 percent in the first year of the policy. We do assume, however, that the magnitude of thebehavioural response declines as the company tax rate declines, reflecting that theincentive for funds to sell their shares is lower when the company tax rate is lower. We also considered that around 20 per cent of Australian equities held by self-managed superannuation funds are unlisted, and these typically have low levels ofliquidity. In the first year of the policy, the behavioural response we assume for self-managed superannuation funds would be equivalent to these funds moving around aquarter of their listed Australian shares into APRA funds."
Where is the PBO's surprise in that?
"For Rice Warner to suggest that the PBO didn't take account of behavioural changes"
Where did Rice Warner say this or are you just making up fiction?
