Cash on hand roughly 1c/ share (suppose no revenue from GAA).
Projects:
1, Dome 5, Mundi Plains, NSW.
I know most people donot like this project, me too. This is the main reason the SP drop from 5c to 3.9c.
However, as Dome 5 is so close to Broken Hill and only 55km to railway, we really cannot ignore its huge potential.
UXA has a target of 5Mt @ 12%Zn, 4%Pb, 30g/t Ag this equals 0.8 million tonne ZN&Pb metal, 5.2 million ounce Ag. Market value = $2.2 billion
40% of this IGV= $880 million.
Once UXA's target is proven, its 100% sure Dome 5 will be mined in next few years--- only to railway.
but, atm I value Dome5 project -0.3c/share.( UXA has to spend 1.2 million before it can withdraw.
upside potential(if target proven): shoule be worth $15-30million. =5-10c/share.
2, Geoscience Associates Australia & Prompt Fission Neutron (PFN) technology
Purchased price= 5.5m +1.3 + 1.8m= $8.6 million.
= 2.75c/share= my valuation.
Upside potential: As we all know, there will be more U3O8 exploration activities, because the U3O8 price up 40%. If UXA can operate GAA & PFN well, I believe the true of this business should be double the purchase price= $17.2 million.= 5.5c/ share.
3, SA - Stuart Shelf ?C deep Iron Oxide Copper Gold (IOCG) targets. JV with Straits. Straits can earn 70% by spending $10m on exploration over 7 years. This is easy to calculate: 70% of exploration value= $10m, so the rest 30% is worth $10/7*3= 4.29 milliom=1.4c/share.
Upside potential: 5-20c/share.
4, Nabarlek North U3O8 project. JV with top 500 world company.
As Exploration will start in May 2011, currently I value Nil.
Upside potential 5-50c/share.
5, Yambla - Harts Range Uranium and HREE project, Northern Territory.
Previously results: anomalous uranium up to 1,440 ppm and confirmation of the presence of Terbium, Dysprosium and Yttrium.
Now 200 samples just acquired.
As the results due in next 30 days, I value Nil.
upside potential: 5c-20c/share.
Conclusion:
I believe the fair value is based on cash + 2,GAA&PFN + 3, SA - Stuart Shelf