cheers CPDLC. Very informative and probably pretty damn accurate...

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15,757 Posts.

05/03/15

16:14

Post #: 14866378
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Originally posted by CPDLC ↑

Thank you Mike!

Probably worth mentioning that the analysis of quarterlies also led to a calculation of AISC which totally agreed with the numbers reported by MML. I therefore have a degree of confidence in the likely AISCs arising over the second half of FY15 - all else being equal.

Assuming that my forward assumptions re. tonnage, grade and gold price are reasonably accurate and that ongoing cash outflows are roughly consistent with 2Q15, then 3Q15 AISC should look to be c. US$911/oz and 4Q15 AISC to be c. US$885/oz. That would make the overall AISC for FY15 to be c. US$984/oz. Further out, FY16 would likely be c. US$852/oz.

Barring any calamities, the upgraded capacity of the L8 shaft should make a positive difference going forward. The Sep-14 mine schedule showed only 178kt of reserves on levels 1-3 remaining. These contained 20.2koz @ c. 3.6g/t. However, levels 4-8 showed 1418kt of reserve ore @ c. 7.6g/t for approx 346koz of contained gold.

As the preponderance of stope draw-down moves lower in the mine it is these reserves on levels 4-8 which will principally make up the stope ore mill feed, with correspondingly improved head grade once allowance is made for the ongoing contribution from diluted development ore.

So all in all, the tide would appear to have turned for Co-O and they should be able to replenish their cash at a steady rate and proportional to their leverage to the gold price.

AIMHO of course
CPDLC

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cheers CPDLC. Very informative and probably pretty damn accurate forecast imo. Using the above for 4QFY15 and POO at USD1200 and USD1300.... what is FCF for this 4th quarter? Pretty good i imagine. Figures will show how a 8% rise in POO can massively leverage earnings. Of course MML doesn't control POO but physical gold exchange about to open in China could change things.

When will Medusa start mining levels 4-8?

MML Price at posting: $1.02 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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cheers CPDLC. Very informative and probably pretty damn accurate...

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