Have been looking at this stock and would like some opinions on...

Have been looking at this stock and would like some opinions on how realistic these figures are:

Using the half yearly Financial Report figures - To get to break-even: Sales Revenue would need to be approx $8.3m pa (working on a 40% COGS and OPEX $5m).

Under the MOU 6 million avian influenza kits are being sold over a 12 months period. The only price & cost figures I have seen are from the Khandaker Partners analyst (Jan 2006) - Sale Price US$6 with Costs of US$3.75 (ie COGS of 62.5%).

I would also assume that to get such a large deal over the line they may have reduced the sale price (in which case the COGS goes up) - assume $5 with a 75% cogs = GP $1.25 per kit.

Therefore 6m x $1.25 (GP) = $7.5m pa - OPEX $5m = $2.5m Net Profit (Before Tax)

Now add in Pepp sales currently 623K tablets. The tablets retail @ 1.50 per tablet however we need to take into account what the actual wholesale price is to the distributor then take off the COGS. I would expect that the company only makes a small amount of money per tablet - probably only 10 cents per tablet. Therefore the current annual profit from Pepp sales would only be $62.3K You could multiply that by ??? for the increased markets.

Then add to that whatever other sales are made for the other products - though they are fairly negligible atm.

Putting this together, I would assume that by Jun 09, the company would earn approx $3m NPBT.

Any thoughts?
Cheers
KM