Originally posted by triage
Wat445 - different report, different precedent. You are referring to the quarterly activity reports which do include a reasonable amount of number crunching. The regs require the quarterly activity reports to be issued no later than a calendar month after the end of the quarter and yes like most other companies Orocobre releases their quarterly activity reports right near the end of the calendar month and I think you are about right in your prediction as to when they will release the latest quarterly activity report.
But I'm talking about the quarterly production report. Four years ago when Olaroz first went into production the company used to put out production reports for each month but as nameplate moved further into the distance the company decided it was all too embarrassing and they would only put out the production figures on a quarterly basis contained within the quarterly activity reports. Then the February weather event from earlier this year knocked production quite materially and in a presentation in April Richard Seville indicated that the consequences of that weather event could depress production right through to June. So, in consequence it would seem, at the beginning of July the company released a quarterly production report as a standalone document. Unlike some of the other information included in the quarterly activities report they know what the production figures are pretty much as soon as the month or the quarter is over which allowed them to release that data within the first couple of business days of July.
Seeing that the Olaroz plant is now three years behind schedule in reaching nameplate, that the operation took a major hit to its production earlier this year which we still do not know if it has fully recovered from, and that I suspect the Japanese are blocking FID on the phase 2 Olaroz development and the LiOH plant until Orocobre shows it is capable of running phase 1 competently, the quarterly production for the September quarter is, I think, as equally as crucial as the one for the June quarter. Why would they rush out the June quarter production report but sit on the September quarter production report? Fickle? Indifferent? or Slippery? I have an inkling that Richard Seville appears to have serious form in not being a straight shooter and the fact that he is sitting on a report that he has all the data for worries me. That I was told by the company yesterday that they would be putting out a production report today and they have not is, as I said, unfortunately par for the course for this lot.
it appears the quarter was favourable for rain from what I can find published for Olaroz Chico. July - 11mm August 0mm, September 6mm. considering 2 week planned shut this qtr I'll be content with anything over 3,000 tonnes and happy with anything over 3,500. I am expecting realised price to be <$13,000/tonne (FOB ex new tax) and forecast to be slightly weaker but > $11,500/tonne.
