As I recall it, chance of success (COS) includes factors such as:
Previous history in similar/analagous structures
Probability hydrocarbons are present
Probability seal is present
Probable saturation of rocks
Probability porosity is sufficient to enable hydrocarbons to be recovered
Etc.
COS usually refers to 'geological success', not necessarily commercial success. That is, a well that encounters hydrocarbons is deemed a success whether or not the discovery is sufficient to be commercial.
(Happy for those with expertise to shoot me down and/or expose my shortcomings here. I think it important that holders and would-be holders have a reasonable idea of just what is meant when Strike quotes COS for WE.)
You might gather I am cautious about WE's high COS. Seen COS of 80% and 55% fall over when the rotary lie detector does its stuff. I'm more bullish Jaws than WE ... and hopeful of both!
OOO
Probability, page-6
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