Firstly Doc I commend you for having the courage to ask the hard questions, it adds considerable depth to the discussion. My take to date is a little different, but that makes for a better informed process.
Winks
The numbers for this play made it worth an attempt, 25% COS is 4 to 1 against success, 6m spent on around 100m return on success is odds in favour. Even odds would have been if 24m was the expected return, so agree with Dave 88E is a risk taking company and the odds were good.
What worries me is that the IW conventional portfolio could not generate good enough odds to compete with the Winks proposition. Logically that must be the case otherwise Winks would not have happened, 88E will always pursue the most accretive deal. In the proactive interview from around 4.30 to 5.0 minutes the conventional farmout deal sounds weak to me, in both word selection and tone. I expect a deal offered no where near expectation. 88e is not obliged to take a bad deal as they have a few irons still in the fire and the time to wait and see.
IW unconventional
This play is what most came to 88e for and is still an enigma, IW2V did not match the expectation created from the data generated by the IW1 core samples. There is a fundamental mismatch between modelling and results that have been achieved. An upside is possible if the work being done and due in a few weeks unlocks the puzzle.
On the negative side I don't follow the theory of gas in the lower HRZ being the problem. Too much gas interfering doesn't stack up against the fact that gas flow virtually stopped in both flow attempts.
Yukon
As a current discovery it has real potential when matched against the developing infra structure in the area. Size is the constraint, if the 3d shows up a larger target there is potential for a decent return, not spectacular as hoped for with IW1 but good enough to mend the wounds to date.
Weighing it all up I have adjusted to sell sentiment for now
88E Price at posting:
1.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)
