Price Target, page-46

Just spent some time comparing revenues from last reporting periods and the impact that global fish prices (Fish Pool Index) may have on the next report:

If the trajectories from previous reporting periods are maintained, revenue from export should be up by approx. 44%, wholesale by approx. 16% and domestic retail will be slightly down. Wholesale and export however will be impacted by the global price drop which I estimated to be 21% (drop between average weekly price in 1H2017 which was 67,79NOK vs average of 53,60NOK in 2H2017). Taking this drop into account, and assuming that the trends are maintained:
Revenue from export should be around 29,570,000
Revenue from wholesale should be roughly 75,338,000
Revenue from domestic retail should be around 109,000,000
All together give a figure just under 214,000,000 being 1% less than revenue from half year ended December 2016.
Three additional factors that must be taken into account: in last year’s reports Tassal maintained that revenues were heavily impacted by adverse environmental impacts, smaller fish etc. – these factors did not occur in the last six months so the revenues should be higher than my projections above. Secondly, there is approximately 14% more shares due to capital raising in March last year, dilluting EPS. Finally, there is the cost side which may be crucial in overall results (but I did not have time to look into it).
The above suggests that the upcoming results may be comparable or slightly lower than those reported 12 months ago. The question is how the market is going to react.
PS. Apologies if there are any errors - DYOR