Hi all,I have had quick look on the recent volumes and prices...

Hi all,

I have had quick look on the recent volumes and prices since 13 December (since the announcement of Delist) and the announcement documents and here are my thoughts.  Please note that these are my thoughts only and should not be taken by anyone to make any hold or sell decision for this stock or make any financial decision.  Please DYOR. 

• Currently FMS has approximately 3.5 Billions of share own issue. Todd + OCJ owns about 76% (?) and rest are others.
• My understanding from the reading the announcement papers: they have declared a buyback of max 10% shares which is approximately 350 Millions shares. The buyback price will depend upon the recent VWP prices during the buyback (with a max cap price of 7.5 c.  They also promised to by the unmarketable parcels (valued <$500) for a price of $7.5c a share.
• The buyback loan  is about $27M. If we divide this $27M by 350 Million shares (10%) then avg share buyback budgeted is about 7.5c.  I.e. looks like they budgeted 7.5c per share maximum. Off-course cheaper is better for the company and the shareholders who would like to stay on after delist.
• On 13/12, on the release of the news share price lost 50% value by the trade of only <3.5M shares (which is about 0.1% of the total SPs and about 0.4% of the shares that owned outside of Todd+OCJ). Looks like some shareholders had to rush out to sell the small parcels on fear  and crashed the price (?)
• On 17/12 (after resume from TH), SP went up 42% to 3.5c with only a volume of 3.6M shares (approx. 0.1% of the shares)
• For the last two days only  SP went down by 38% (from 4.4c to 2.7c) from a total sell of 4.1M shares !   Wonder why so desperate sale.
• Looks like not many people are willing to sell at this ridiculous price.  However, since there is no other buyers, SP not holding even with tiny sale volumes.
• I am along term holder and participated in the CR. Not sure if delisted what to do.  I can't help to think that perhaps us little shareholders are making too cheap for buyback.  If we can hold, perhaps we can get better price (for who want to participate in buyback).
• I am also thinking to hold even if deliisted and sell later if Todd/OCJ offers a better price down the track.  Hard decision to make though. (If more people could hold, perhaps better results to achieve).
• Any thoughts would be welcome. Especially @nb266: I always liked your posts on FMS. Any thought NB266?

Regards,

Akamal