One big driver for BSL are the Global steel prices which have...

One big driver for BSL are the Global steel prices which have come off recently (last two months) by around $US100/t however this fall was from a very high level. The very high prices have lead to the $800M earned in the last 6 months and the steel price fall will probably mean BSLs 2nd 6 months will be considerably lower .. maybe $500M but still not bad for 6 months. Supply & demand generally drive steel prices but we also have the current US/china trade war that is having an impact The Exchange rate also has a large impact on BSLs profits, with a large percentage of profits now coming from the US with higher profits in $A if the fx is low. The low FX also allows BSL to increase domestic Australian prices as the low fx increases the prices of imported steel products.

History shows that the Steel industry has ups and downs however BSL are now saying that they have a structure in place to allow them to be profitable throughout the cycle (less reliance on exports). Time will tell whether this statement is correct. 

If global steel price colapse and/or FX moves back up into the 80s or 90s BSL could move lower but with current profits and relative stability in the steel industry I don't understand why BSL isn't twice as much as it is at the moment. IMO & DYOR.