Yes Rivermore. We dare to dream. Just imagine if both Palta and...

Yes Rivermore. We dare to dream. Just imagine if both Palta and Winchester were filled to spill with wet gas.


See you have quoted a figure of $600 - 800 million per TCF.
That equates to 60 - 80 cents per thousand. I have used 50 cents per thousand in past posts.

Winchester 1.6 TCF OXX 25%. Mean gas estimate was about 1.5TCF call it 1.6 to make the maths easy

400BCF to OXX @ 50 cents per thousand = 200m in ground

225m shares = 88 cents.

Then there is the condensate, if I remember correctly 67 mmbbls (mean resource) was the figure mentioned, call it 60 which would be 15 to OXX at say $20 bbl = 300 million = $1.33 per share.

There is over $2.00 there alone easy without anything else.
Risk it at 10% and you get 20cents for Win alone which makes a mockery of the SP.
However you must risk Winchester much higher than this. My stab is 30%. Winchester is not a wildcat, the stucture has been drilled before, Parker1 + ST 1 1979/80. Drilling ended in stacked sands and shales, but was not logged due to an anchor chain breaking and other drilling problems. However this Parker well was considered a Triassic gas discovery in the Mungaroo sands, and correlates with the Wilcox and Zola gas discoveries. In my opinion it is about how much gas and is it commercial. Worth a look at the say 2008 Annual Report for a decent write up on past drilling.
Also worth noting is it's location. While the field wouldn't be that big it is handy to infastructure and other major gas fields. It would not be stranded gas,it would be developed, but I am getting ahead of myself.
I don't count my chickens, been disappointed so many times, but I really do think Win has a good chance of coming to something. Not too long to wait!!

And then there is Palta, and Makutu!! Will save then for another post.

By the way the figures for Win are:
"Prospective gas resource and condensate"
Low 354 bcf 14mmbbls
Best 1117 49
Mean 1492 67
High 3394 156