Predictions: Share price and fallout

First of all I am sorry for those who are losing their jobs...sorry for most of them. My experiences with them while a CTN shareholder were in the main positive and they seemed nice people, although the names are less familiar. That said it is a cut throat industry and if you can't perform you are out. They all sat around while a dirty, filthy buy out and capitalisation at investors expense was undertaken, and then another secret sordid sell off of to NAOS occurred. The staff should not be surprised they went under the bus so quickly either. The fact is that their numbers showed they were just plain bad at their job and this is called accountability.

So, predictions:

Share Price is $31m Mtk Cap @ $0.65c but what is it worth?

Lets say $1m as a shell?
Revenue on CQG 2/5ths of stuff all
Revenue on 1/2 of Switzer 1/5th of even less
Revenue on CIE about $700k p.a
Other revenue? I don't think so

So basically enough to run a skeleton team until they accept that they won't pull another mandate and decide to sell off CIE a-la CTN.

So maybe $3m revenue + no profit for a few years, tapping the cash reserve in that time, 5 times earnings....3 times revenue?...$10m? Maybe. If being generous. So $0.20c + whatever value is placed on the cash from CTN sale (ahem, pending CTN sale) to NAOS. Maybe $0.25c IF one is generous?

But you wouldn't buy this share. No mandates on the horizon, needs to spend for publicity, burning cash, can't bury CGA OpEx inside CTNs opex. Pay out salaries and entitlements, lease make good and so on. I'm going 15 cents here. If NAOS can pull off the vote. If not maybe CTN board undertakes PROPER DD and finds a replacement who is generous enough to send some $ CGAs way, although why would anyone do that? CGA has walked away from the portfolio and CTN owes it nothing

But all this ignores one thing- who will buy in the face of sellers getting out now while they have something and there is a Bid. I think that 50,000 @ $0.50c currently on screen will go pretty quickly. If I were a holder (DYOR) I would be taking whatever I could get for my shares and be glad I got something.

Unless I think NAOS (unitholders) will bail me out, or CIE shareholders. And they may. After all it is a tight industry right, and what else are NAOS doing by negotiating with CGA and not CTN whom they could have approached, right?

But the fallout

40 years of this in various industries has shown me that where there has been a coup, and then a purge, and then a collapse where hopes and dreams were destroyed following many friendships and people compromised to get it to the pinacle, the end is not the end, it is merely the beginning of the end, the prelude. Certainly not suggesting anything improper happened of course, but well, here we have staff's life equity not looking well (how much bought on debt too btw), sackings before Christmas, board replacements, hurt egos shattered dreams, angry investors asking brokers how they sold them into this dog and a BooBoo left wandering up and down Bourke and Collins Street with much hurt pride. If that isn't recipe for a powderkeg nothing is and I've seen the proverbial hit the fan, accusations, recriminations, tears, anger, fists before and its fun to watch, but is never pretty.

We have enjoyed this from up close for the last year. Investors late to the party and recently brought in will read the HC threads from a year ago suggesting the obvious from day 1: CGA had insufficient clients, not enough revenue, too many staff, too much cash burn, leaders in denial, terrible, terrible performance record, was losing clients. This was obvious to anyone who spent more than 5 minutes looking at the numbers. CGA was only ever going to go under barring a miracle.

I wonder what those who were sucked in to the last capital raise were told? I mean CGA raised $5m at 90c just 2 months ago! And now it is goneski. It listed last year and within 3 months needed more capital to stay afloat. I would be super p*ssed off if I were sold this pup. Angrier I didn't come here and read any thread on CGA to see the true situation and asking my adviser on what basis they made this fetid recommendation. And perhaps they may also then ask the Company what they were being told. Personally, that is the story I want to hear

Yes, for some reason I just have a feeling there is a lot of water to flow under this bridge before the AGM...from tomorrow even. Of which I have a front row seat booked and my popcorn, icing sugar and bowl all sitting next to the microwave, ready sit back and watch fingers start pointing.  

So shareprice 35c tomorrow before settling between 15-25c, with stories galore to follow.


Disclaimer: DYOR, not financial advice. You can sue me if you want but a magistrate will read my post history and laugh out loud at anyone who acted on my comments