Yeah, I reckon turkey this Xmass, let this duckling grow a bit more.
Tino knows what he's doing, and will ensure we remain self-funding, and get growth via a strong ROE. Despite all the ear ache he must get from those that tell him he should take the hard earned cash off to a casino, he is already sitting on a prime asset that needs further drilling (prime as evidenced by attracting 3 for 1 farmins for single plays).
Not sure how much value you are assigning to the refinery, but I am guessing about 20 cps EBITDA, say 8 cps NPAT, and 50 cps value at a modest PE of 6.3 I suspect we'll see expansion down the track, say doubling, with buyin of crude from others tired of the STO tolls. That may require a bigger diesel market in NW of SA, Olympic dam and Prominent Hill (where the dual transport savings really count). Regardless I can see STU getting a really strong first mover advantage over say BPT (who probably prefer to grow on geoscience skills anyway).
Ervina, The magic million wouldn't suprise me either, however that will probably hinge on Toporoa, I reckon perhaps a bit too much of a stretch? Not sure how they are fixed for extra tankers, as suspect the Derrilyn pipeline is not the answer.
Regardless of 2006 FY, I reckon their will be a good long string of mmbo annual production figures, which the market is not recognising.
If Tino can get the million this FY, perhaps then we'll get our $2 sp rerating. Can't see how we can stay under a million for long, nor how a well managed mmbo producer (with minimal hedging remaining) can trade under a A$125mm captn.
Entropylord
STU Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
