Even - in the short term I have no idea - things appear...

Even - in the short term I have no idea - things appear irrational ... and I don't know how to process this in the short term.

How I look at it is to try make it simple.

Im thinking of investing 433m dollars say, and buying flightcentre.

This will return me $65m odd this year, and I expect upwards of $120m per year in the longer term, say 1-4 years from now.

so... my return on my investment this year is 16.5 % - thats pretty good when I consider that I can only get 5% in the bank.

...and money in the bank doesnt grow, whereas with flightcentre, I expect my profits to increase to 120m over the longer term, bringing up my return on investment as high as 25% + Now, thats 5x what Id get in the bank.

The thing is, banks have minimal risk (normally.. heh maybe not these days!) - so then I have to factor in risk for flightcentre - which I think is low, given their modest debt position and very strong cash / cashflow position... and I have already factored in poor sales into my 65m result this year...

So, what range... well I consider it cheap now, it may drop further and be even cheaper... who knows - thats the thing with irrationality. No matter though, if someone offered you a term deposit of 16.5% today on your capital for the next 3 years and included possible significant capital upside, would you take it? If the answer is yes, then its in range!

Personally, I thought it was cheap @ $7.50 - because I think its worth $15 upwards in the longer term, with minimal risk to boot.

Hope this helps.