Telstra's more than one million shareholders will not be pleased with the sustained slide in the share price since the start of this year to be trading in the low $4 range now.
The latest sell-off was triggered by TPG Telecom's audacious decision to become the fourth mobile network operator in Australia along with Optus and Vodafone.
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Telstra's share price is under pressure as mobile competition increases. Photo: Peter Braig
However, there was already a shadow over Telstra with the competition regulator's soon-to-be-announced decision on whether Telstra will have to share more of its infrastructure to competitors or continue its limited infrastructure-sharing model.
The telco also faces a big revenue hole at the completion of its migration of its copper wire customers to the NBN in several years' time.
There are risks for TPG shareholders also. They could be greater as analysts believe it has paid a lot to buy premium mobile spectrum.
And it will spend a lot more on the roll-out of mobile coverage to cover 80 per cent of Australia's population over the next three years.
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Greg Smith, head of research at Fat Prophets, says Telstra shareholders must be wondering if the telco's share price will fall further.
And many Telstra shareholders will likely have been spooked by TPG and by the speculation that it could make a tilt at Vodafone Australia and may be thinking of selling Telstra shares and buying TPG for its better growth prospects.
Smith says there are execution risks with TPG as its trying to grow its business while Telstra is mostly trying to defend its premium mobile business in the regions of Australia.
Smith reckons Telstra shares are a "buy" at less than $4.50 but it's a "buy and hold proposition for the longer term".
Motley Fool contributor Tom Richardson offers a
counter view. He says that the competition regulator could rule against Telstra. "Given the rising competition and Telstra's typically glacial speed in responding to it, I'm not a buyer of its shares at today's knocked-down prices," he said.
"TPG shares though look a buy to me given its cheap valuation, multiple growth levers, the heavy insider ownership of shares and likelihood of an attempted full-blown merger with Vodafone Australia."
Brian Han, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, is maintaining his $4.80 fair value estimate on Telstra shares. He is assuming the regulator will keep the current regulatory regime. However, he says an adverse decision would see his fair value for Telstra shares drop by 10 per cent to $4.32.
"We are still talking about a TPG foray in mobile that will take years to roll-out," he said.
Han thinks TPG shares, which are trading at about $5.90, are worth $6.60.
Like most of analysts he is expecting Telstra to eventually cut its dividends.
He says Telstra shares at current prices in the low $4 range have a cash dividend yield of more than 7 per cent and remain attractive compared to TPG's yield of less than half that.
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