It is unloved at the moment but yes it only takes one headline...

It is unloved at the moment but yes it only takes one headline discovery to 'pop' although this will be a highly unlikely occurence in my opinion. From what I remember, the CEO of Orion claimed 20% to 25% chance of success with the first well which was P&A. This is ridiculous and smacks of incompetence on behalf of the management IMO. It is nigh impossible to calculate any kind of percentage probability of success in the oil & gas industry, and moreover to go public is worrying.

It is also worrying that Eastern Star Gas 'spun out' these assets to only maintain minority interest. IMO if they were prospective for hydrocrabons in any real way according to the management, then they would have kept them or maintained greater interest. This is especially so for CBM, since any discoveries would fit excellently with ESG's business model.

IMO there are plenty of other spec oilers that provide significant upside potential yet carry far less risk inherently than does OIP.

Mudguy.