Evening all,
Good to see another green day today on excellent volume, and thus far the projected target of a 75-100% gain (refer to the posts below) is playing out quite nicely.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/sp...e-leste-prospect.4662331/page-2#post-37663289
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/running-discussion-on-sp.4111732/page-257#post-37603841
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/running-discussion-on-sp.4111732/page-258#post-37614721
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/positives-to-look-forward-to-next-3-months.4665262/#post-37700937
@h00ts has also posted some solid TA in the chart thread, highlighting the glaringly obvious gap/target at 6.7c as well as other key areas of resistance.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/avz-chart.3105143/page-104#post-37799389
Furthermore, looking at the list below we can see that
100% of the items flagged as possible catalysts for SP appreciation in the near term are still yet to make headlines or come to fruition. The only news that we've had so far is the unexpected announcement that Huayou Cobalt have been buying (and perhaps still are) on market.
Forecasted Positives (from 13th March and 3.8c double bottom)
1. Transport Study ——— > 15-30%
2. Scoping Study———————> 15-25%
3. Met Tests————————— > 5-10%
4. Paterson report ——————> 10%
5. Chairman —————-———-> 10-20% (dependent on his/her reputation and quality of CV)
6. JORC update—————-——-- -> 10-15%
7. DFS—————-—————--> won't see until next half (IMHO).
8. Offtake —————————> won't see until next half (IMHO)
9. Financing————————> won't see until next half (IMHO)
10. Other research reports-——> 5-10%
11. 5 year tax holiday—————> 10-15%
12. 10% extra project interest —> 15%
13. Industry news and sector perf. -> 5-20% in total
Total gross gain est. ---------> +100-170% * **
Actual Positives
1. Huayou Cobalt buying on market -----------> +30% so far
Forecasted Negatives
1. Industry news and sector performance --------> -5-20% in total
2. Natural profit taking and drifting in between news events ---> -15-30% in total
4. DRC related risks (instability, outbreaks, sudden changes of Govt policy, challenges arising from MMCS vs DRC arbitration) ------> -5-20%
Actual Negatives (from 13th March and 3.8c double bottom)
Nil thus far. However I'd expect some mild profit taking to occur at some stage, and possibly by the end of the week, particularly
if there are no further announcements to be released this week (??).
In summary,
if the SP continues its current trajectory north and on the back of uplifts from
possible BIG news items (refer again to the above list) being released in the coming days and weeks, then potentially we could be looking at a SP that exceeds 7.6c or double the recent CR price.
Thus am starting to wonder whether 10c by the 15th April (Huayou options strike price and expiry date) is out of the question and if not, then will this be a well executed THANKYOU from the BOD (including two of our major holders NF & HC) with a further $18.6m in hand and an accompanying note saying
'we've made up recently and thus here are your Easter Eggs that were due this time last year. And btw Xmas (in the form of an exceptional DFS, OT etc.) is coming early.
' ??
GLTA and please note that all of the above are my thoughts, forecasts and opinion only, and therefore should not be considered as advice of any kind.
Cheers
Elpha
