Looking at the AGM presentation from 29/11/13 we can see that the mill has a quarterly capacity of c. 36kt. Page 35 of the presentation shows ORS's anticipated ramp up in the years ahead to reach an anticipated 36kt per Q throughput for 4,600 oz per Q output by Q1 2016. This may be conservative as ORS is targeting 30k oz p.a. production, so the upside variable would be increased grade going through the plant.
It is clear from the delays at Pearl that ORS is running about 1Q behind schedule at this stage.
From the AGM presentation it also appears that this Q will be the last Q of running low grade tailings through the plant.
It is also clear that the mill throughput is not the bottleneck for ORS at this stage, it is the mining rate (from the graph on pg 35).
Given the recent commentary by management that they are reviewing their mining plan due to having 'so much gold' it would be safe to say that this relates to their planned mining of Alliance South as this is where the positive upside surprises have occurred.
I would anticipate that we will get an announcement soon that an additional mining crew has been employed so that Alliance South can both be mined in this Q - possibly as Sydneysider suggests that the Western reef on 1100 will be mined and the extent of the strike on that level tested - whilst a second crew works on accelerating the decline down to the 1080 level.
If this transpires it would indicate that management are keen to get more high grade Alliance South ore to the mill sooner than their original mine plan allows for.
I think that we've speculated (and had confirmed with ORS) that getting the decline to the 1080 level will take another 4 months or so from now and then ore volume could increase significantly.
It would not be unreasonable to assume that by the 4Q of 2014 we see the following:
Pearl Croydon = 10kt per Quarter (still ramping up) @ 2.9g/t = 935 oz Alliance South = 6kt per Quarter (original plan) @ 9 g/t Alliance South New = +0-6kt per Quarter (new accelerated mine plan) @ 9 g/t*
Total oz production 4Q = 2,676 - 4,418 oz
[* I don't know what bottlenecks would exist within the Alliance South shoot to limit tonnage coming out]
You'd imagine that with higher grades being mined (in aggregate) and going through the mill coupled with fixed and semi fixed admin/ corporate/ geo/ support costs that cash costs per oz and AISC would significantly reduce too.
Should be all good for ORS. If the analysis of Sydneysider in the ST, and these numbers a little further out, play out it won't be long that ORS will be sitting on cash + bullion that is a multiple of its current MC.
Cheers John
ORS Price at posting:
4.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
