Hi Arkie,The source was an Indian wind farm. The EU spot prices...

Hi Arkie,

The source was an Indian wind farm. The EU spot prices were over 30e 12 months ago and have been as low as 1e and over 35e. It is a very volatile market closely linked to the strength of the economy. Voluntary carbon offsets are a luxury item and one of the first to go in tight times.

There is an auction of VCS happening in Brazil shortly and I will be watching with interest.

Of concern is the Nupan credits are somewhat tainted by the negative press surrounding Roberts himself- the bad press has highlighted the project but also realised concerns over the long term security of the project, i.e will the forest be logged anyway, who owns it etc.

TO get the VCS accreditation then they must be able to satisfy the requirements of the VCS standards and all the forestry standards, including the VCS standards require fundamentals such as security of ownership, additionality, permanence to be demonstrated through supply of independently verified documentation.

There is a bottle neck on the accreditation of VCS AFOLU (including REDD) as the only verifier available is TUV SUD and they are snowed under, others are coming on line and this should release a number of VCS projects, more credits on the registry.

If the project can not be satisfied to the standards of the VCS then it will not be granted as if any of these requirements are not met then the value of the VCS brand will diminished. It is int he interest of all carbon project developers to operate and demand the highest level of security and IMO that must include the sovereign government of the host country. This becomes problematic in long term projects that rely on the maintenance of living biomass, particularly in countries with volatile political systems.

From a simple observers point of view ( and I do not know a great deal about this particular project)I see that the PNG government constantly references the lack of national legislation to enact such projects , this may or not be necessary to get VCS accreditation.

Then there is the investigation into the office of climate change and the assassination attempt on the ombudsmen looking into the matter, the apparent loss of key documents, salacious scandal in the press, the back out of the CP merger. And my recollection was that the first sales were to be in the first quarter, where are we now?

In my experience in other carbon projects I have seen that things take a lot longer than expected, you are usually sailing in uncharted waters and working it out with governments and landholders as you go. It is is hard enough here without bringing in legislative and cultural differences.

So my question is . IS the delay due to the verification prices bottleneck or is it that the project has not yet secured the necessary fundamentals to proceed?

The mandatory market is policy driven and the voluntary market is driven by the public opinion, policy is public driven and science driven. The public is wavering and the science is under a cloud ( ill deserved IMO)result - buyers market.

It would be great to see vast areas of PNG preserved and the locals to benefit greatly in the process,but it is forestry, this is long term stuff. Some times it is better to slow down to go faster.