Hi TheLorax,Great post and many thanks. Your experience is very...

Hi TheLorax,

Great post and many thanks. Your experience is very much appreciated and I hope you continue to contribute to this thread even if you dont buy in.

Holding this stock is no less a risk than many of the dodgy Oil & Gas explorers out there IMHO but the potential upside has me holding on. Ive only just recently bought in and find the whole CCT/ETS market fascinating. No stock I hold is impacted by external factors to the extent as this one...certainly a different ball game!

"It is a very volatile market closely linked to the strength of the economy. Voluntary carbon offsets are a luxury item and one of the first to go in tight times."

After further research on the carbon credit market there is certainly much clear evidence to support what you are saying and was also highlighted by Ian Clarkson as his biggest short term concern. IMO As the economy recovers so will the hunger for industrial progress pouring more carbon emissions into the atmosphere. This will no doubt put more pressure on countries to conform to world standards in carbon trading and increased demand for carbon credits.

www.carboncatalog.org provides an interesting insight into current projects and in particular going prices.

For Australian providers see:

http://www.carboncatalog.org/providers/australia/?sort=projects¤cy=USD&pagesize=20&pageoffset=1

Many of these prices are extremely out of date but the site provides some good information.

The situation in PNG is certainly an interesting one. You said..."VCS standards require fundamentals such as security of ownership". Here lies the problem. However from my research on PNG the government has a very strong constitution [courts are directed by the Constitution and, latterly, the Underlying Law Act, to take note of the "custom" of traditional communities] and 97% of the land is owned by the traditional landowners. This would, I assume, give Cowboy Kirk some leeway in his negotiations IMHO and Id say they are heavily relying on this fact. Also Im ignorantly hoping that even though VCS are well aware of the current situation with the likes of Kirk and his activities, they just might lean towards approving the methodology also knowing too well the influence the logging companies have over the PNG government.

"And my recollection was that the first sales were to be in the first quarter, where are we now?....So my question is . IS the delay due to the verification prices bottleneck or is it that the project has not yet secured the necessary fundamentals to proceed?"

I get the feeling that we may see some delay in the outcome of the first project IMHO. Particularly given we are nearly halfway through March and we havent yet been notified of any VCS approval of the methodology. After this the project developers then need to submit the PDD. They cannot complete any of the projects until all of this is approved completed to the extent of converting credits to cash! Id be happy to hold provided the company informs the market accordingly and maybe gives us an estimate of the amount of credits expect to achieve against last projections.

Cash flow is the obvious concern if we are to see any further delays.

What is your take on CCBS accreditation? Is this equally important? Would one be easier to achieve than the other? Obviously having both would achieve the highest standard.

Also thanks for drawing my attention to the VCS auction in Brazil. When is this and are there any details on the internet? This price update will certainly help with estimating m2ms projected EBIT.

Cheers,

Arkie