PNC 0.00% 63.0¢ pioneer credit limited

That may be. However, all of CCP, PNC and CLH suffer the same...

  1. 590 Posts.
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    That may be. However, all of CCP, PNC and CLH suffer the same fundamental problem when reporting their results. A large part of what they need to do to determine the carrying value of their PDL books is to determine either fair value (PNC) or amortised cost (the other two). Both of these methods require a crystal ball to estimate the future cash flows that then informs what the balance should be and thus the amount taken as revenue to the income statement. The only known is the purchase price, past collections and that the asset must be worth zero when eventually repaid (in part or full), written off as non-collectible or statute barred. Thus how one gets from the purchase price to zero and match that with the cash collection stream is the name of the game in trying to report earnings (and thus the ability to play with the numbers if one so chose).

    It is in how the three treat this process that I think differs and if you go back to inception of these companies it would appear to me that CCP has been the most, not least, aggressive as to what it has amortised to the P&L. If you look at simple metrics such as PDL cash collections to carrying value of PDL book then it would appear (even taking into account differing portfolios) that CCP has actually taken the conservative approach for many years, which as a result may give them breathing room to massage if cash collections slow. However for some time it doesn't look like they've needed to do that and thus there reported earnings appear, to me at least, of fairly high quality. As indicated, I personally think with CCP it is that way round and thus potentially they could've reported more profit in the past than the alternative. That would suggest that today is a good buying opportunity.

    PNC is at a different stage in its lifecycle and so its hard to compare on that front. I have nothing but appreciation for my shareholding in PNC as while i held it I doubled my money. No longer hold any but more a factor of opportunity benefit of capital as I saw better deployment opportunities for my own portfolio, which fortunately turned out to produce better subsequent returns on my personal equity curve than if I'd stayed invested in PNC.

    DYOR
 
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