good questioni think we are all still waiting for someone to...

good question

i think we are all still waiting for someone to offer a NPV before we can realistically move forward with that debate.

for comparison sake, British smallcap Sandhaven have acquired a 100% interest in a 32BCF texas interest that they conservatively value at $US72mln NPV (this is from 10 producing wells and they expect to drill 28 more)

this seems to imply around 45-50% expected profit

so if brian only flows 10mmcfd then the current value is just about already priced in, which explains why the sp isn't surging ahead.

on the other hand,if it comes in then we get a better idea of the probability of success of the field, so its reasonable to expect the market to quickly start pricing in at least 50BCF on speculation.

again using NPV of $US2.30/mcf, FUTs 50% slice becomes around $AU61mill mc, or 2c + shareprice

if Brian flows 15mmcfd, 3c + is possible, depending on what mood the market is in