Thanks Fastcar. The results of my analysis (geological and...

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  1. 4,285 Posts.
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    Thanks Fastcar.
    The results of my analysis (geological and commercial) for Cooper Basin, then Australia and then Asian markets about the future of gas shows that (in brief) tells me that Planet Gas is the last opportunity in the Patchawarra Trough of Cooper basin where the gas will be explored and produced easier and cheaper than Nappamerri Trough of Cooper basin.
    • Asia will need huge amount of gas in the next 5 years as Chinese demand is increasing significantly.
    • This gas will be mainly supplied from Australia
    • Australia is being the biggest LNG exporter soon in order to supply the Asian demand.
    • The LNG will be mainly exported from the LNG plants of QLD's Gladstone where the gas is produced from Coal Seam Gas (CSG) starting from 2017.
    • There are four LNG plant projects in Gladstone; Santos-Petronas-Total-Kogas JV, BG Group, Shell-PetroChina, Origin-Conoco-Sinopec
    • The total of investment for those projects is significant; $80 billion.
    • The future of those LNG plants are all in danger. The CSG in QLD is produced by fracking of coals seams at around 600m depth. There are big problems with this shallow fracking. The antic natural water in the coal seams are being sucked for freeing the gas, the black water comes up the the ground and needs to be injected back to the ground. That creates big problems for the aquifers. This will be understood better over the time. Therefore there may a ban for CSG extraction in QLD too as it has been already banned in NSW.
    • At the same time, the East Coast of Australia has a domestic gas problem. The off-shore gas is diminishing in Victoria. The cheap gas contracts of gas suppliers with the producers are being ended this year and next year. The gas prices will go high as much as $8-$10 per gigajoule (~mcf).
    • The gas which is produced from QLD's CSG business is being given to the domestic market for now till 2017, but they will not give this gas to the domestic market after 2017 as the LNG exporter will have their own deficits.
    • So domestic market will be in big gas deficit.
    • By the way, LNG exporters will need more gas from some else to secure the gas for their of LNG contracts.
    • The only possibility for supplying the gas to Gladstone LNG plants is being from the Cooper basin.
    • BG Group has made a farmin JV with Drillsearch.
    • Chevron has made a farmin JV with Beach but Chevron does not have a LNG plant in QLD Gladstone, instead they have Wheatstone, Gorgon, Barrow Island and North West Shelf Projects in the north west of WA. Cooper is not connected the WA by a gas pipeline for now either. But Chevron is still got their position in Cooper Basin. It is also rumored (in Motley Fool) that there is Chevron behind Magnum Hunter and looking to buy it out!
    • When it comes to Cooper Basin: Beach and Drillsearch have both started exploration in the Nappamerri Trough of Cooper Basin. However it is understood now that it will be very hard and expensive to extract the gas from the Napp.Trough.
    • The other mistake done by those explorers that they though the REM (Roseneath-Epsilon-Murteree) formations would be enough to extract gas. However, it was not the case. The Patchwarra formation was definitely needed to be fracked to extract enough gas. You can see that the latest wells are all drilled down to the Patchawarra formation.
    • There was a big problem with the Patchwarra formation in the Napp. Trough. It was very thick (up to 900m) but it was very deep (4200m) and close to the basement which is made of hot rock granites.
    • Then they turned their eyes to the Patchawarra Trough where the depth of of Patchawarra formation is around 3200-3600m but with around 200m thickness.
    • The deeps of Patchawarra Trough which is convinient for unconv. tight and shale gas (even wet-gas) was covered by 2 tenements; PEL 514 and PEL570.
    • PEL570 was taken by Ambassador (AQO)
    • PEL 514 was taken by Planes Gas (PGS)
    • Then Senex made a farmin to PGS for 50%, then they increased it to 80% (2014)
    • Then Senex has received a all-script offer from Drillsearch but it was refused (2014).
    • Senex has farmed out PEL514 (deeps only) to Origin while PGS has kept its 20% (deeps and shallows for oil with Senex only. (2014)
    • You know the bidding war for AQO's 47.5% of PEL570, Drillsearch and Magnum Hunter.
    The result is PGS's 20% share in the PEL514 is the last remaining opportunity for any explorer who wants to have a share in Patchawarra trough of Cooper Basin.

    I have very little PGS shares atm. Nothing considerable at all. I don't have the funds to buy more as I am stuck in NSE. I have no chance to buy more but this this my research and giving it to you for discussion.

    However NSE has a big chunk of Patchawarra Trough at the same time and i will be making money through NSE if the situation is understood well.
 
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