Just as an aside folks, I've been finding the Tesla coverage...

Just as an aside folks, I've been finding the Tesla coverage really bemusing, and a bit of a bellwether on how the sector is (mis)understood.

analysts are saying model 3 demand is weak and Tesla will deliver something like 52,000 model 3s in Q1 - see https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/rbc-cuts-tesla-price-target-model-3-deliveries.html.

But here is the thing. There are a bunch of sites tracking VIN registrations, and you can easily go back through old data to see how VIN registrations have correlated to deliveries and production rates over time.

See the best real time VIN tracker here - http://www.model3vins.com

and then Bloomberg one which seems to have a fair lag on VIN numbers - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

The pattern is essentially:
- massive VIN registration early in the quarter
- production and delivery ramps up to meet demand
- rush to deliver
- quarterly deliveries end up being about 10% less than VIN registered for the quarter, due to lag between VIN creation, car production and delivery.

So here is the thing.

Tesla is at 136,000 VIN registrations for Q1 - model 3 only. Last quarter they did about 75,000 model 3 VINs (and delivered about 65,000 model 3s).

How on earth does an analyst say they will do 52,000 model 3 deliveries this quarter (a decline of more than 10%), when VIN registrations are literally off charts and tracking closer to 100% growth quarter on quarter?

Lets see what Tesla reports for the quarter, and I'll happily eat my hat if deliveries go down.

But right now I am betting on more than 100,000 model 3s being delivered in Q1.

BTW, Tesla has already done more than 4,700 model 3s in Norway this month. Old record for EVs was by Leak, 2100.

Model 3 is crushing the golf in Norway. Big wake up for VW (in case they needed it lol)