I'm not sure that Vale are the favourite child in South America...

I'm not sure that Vale are the favourite child in South America at the moment.  My hunch is that the authorities will extend their interest in all of Vale's operations, including those in the North which to date have escaped scrutiny or response.  Even ramping up technical requirements for tailing dams will impose a huge burden on miners in the region...

Short version ... watch this space.

I also note that lower grade material is getting some love including that from FMG.  That's all very good but there will IMO always be a barrier of low grade so long as China keeps hammering the mills re pollution.  Ever been to Beijing?  Once the smog lifts, it's quite a beautiful place.  Can only imagine what it's like south at places ear Shandong.  My point ... pellet premiums will be limited by inherent cost of alternative pollution measures but settlement price should move equally with lower grade pricing...

have a great day!