GRR (ASX) Pellet Price

Originally posted by miningnut ↑

No nothing less than 1c will be acceptable, especially as there was no interim dividend. I think this window for high premiums on quality pellet grade product will be much longer than just the current winter months in China as there is a drive to cut pollution levels permanently at all plants there or they get closed down.
Vale restarting three pellet plants this year will only add around 10mil tonnes to production, which is a paltry amount when you consider the tonnes of iron ore currently produced by BHP, Rio, FMG and Vale and the largest of those three pellet plants producing 7mil tonnes is not expected to come online until mid-2018 at the earliest.
Again I hark back to FY11 when they paid 5c in dividends when Shagang had the same shareholding and the number of shares on issue was the same as today so I'm willing to believe that can happen again - even maybe from FY18 profits that could be substantial as I believe they're in a sweet spot at the moment as far as mining, pellet production and pricing are concerned.
Maybe I'm living in a fool's paradise and I certainly don't have the same long term experience in this stock as you do so must respect your views.

Expand

IMO the GRR March 2018 dividend will be $0.02 min and div funding req'd for $0.02 is only $24m. Sustainable strong cash generation outlook and at least $200m cash reserves will be on the Bsht by 3/18. 65% FE premium should be stable or growing over next 6 months. My GRR base case scenario for calendar 2018 (DYOR).

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6

0 Est C2018

1 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 FYE 2018

2 3 3 3 3 12

3 Revenue $ 87,318 $ 73,892 $ 73,892 $ 83,300 $ 318,402

4 EBIT $ 37,620 $ 27,840 $ 27,840 $ 32,640 $ 125,940

5 Assumptions Annual average

6 Royalty 2%

7 Pellets AUD 130.00/t

8 C1 ave AUD80.00/t

9 Pellet shipped 2.5 million tonne

10 65% FE Pellet premium stable

11 AUD/USD $ 0.78

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
0	Est C2018
1		Mar-18	Jun-18	Sep-18	Dec-18	FYE 2018
2		3	3	3	3	12
3	Revenue	$ 87,318	$ 73,892	$ 73,892	$ 83,300	$ 318,402
4	EBIT	$ 37,620	$ 27,840	$ 27,840	$ 32,640	$ 125,940
5	Assumptions					Annual average
6	Royalty 2%
7	Pellets					AUD 130.00/t
8	C1 ave					AUD80.00/t
9	Pellet shipped					2.5 million tonne
10	65% FE Pellet premium				stable
11	AUD/USD					$ 0.78

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	311733	23.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

311733

23.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
24.0¢	11914	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

24.0¢

11914

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	219779	0.270
9	458580	0.265
26	932290	0.260
7	172530	0.255
22	717920	0.250

No.

Vol.

Price($)

219779

0.270

458580

0.265

932290

0.260

172530

0.255

717920

0.250

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.275	405759	8
0.280	942702	17
0.285	372332	13
0.290	1710676	31
0.295	651900	8

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.275

405759

0.280

942702

0.285

372332

0.290

1710676

0.295

651900

(20min delay)
Last 23.5¢		Change -0.005(2.08%)		Mkt cap ! $266.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
24.0¢	24.5¢	23.5¢	$96.74K	403.4K

IMO the GRR March 2018 dividend will be $0.02 min and div...

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