Whitehaven (WHC) is probably the best comparison in my opinion....

Whitehaven (WHC) is probably the best comparison in my opinion.

RRP and WHC have different financial years, which makes a straight out comparison a little more difficult.

RRP's Financial Year (FY) is the same as a calendar year (Jan 1 - Dec 31)
WHC's FY runs from July 1 to June 30.

In their most recent Full Year report RRP reported Earning Per Share (EPS) of 42.3 cents per share.
In their most recent Full Year report WHC reported EPS of 41.1 cents per share.

In WHC's latest Half Year report (announced to the ASX in Feb 2018) they announced EPS of 25.6 cents per share.

If RRP was to be priced on a PE ration of 10, as per your post, the price of RRP shares would be $4.23 per share.
At a share price of $2.03 per share, RRP would be trading on a PE multiple of 4.8.

I await a reply from you know who about how you don't value mining companies via a PE ratio!

Seeing your post made me look for industry peers, as I recalled one of the announcements containing references to other industry players. I believe they were names like WHC, Stanmore, Bathurst Coal and so on.

I came across some interesting information I don't think I had come across before.

The Independent Expert used coal price expectations of USD$95 to USD$110 per tonne in their calculations.
How is the price tracking compared to these assumptions??
I am well aware RRP does not sell its product at full prices, given the ownership structure of the mine.

There were also comments about BIDDER GROUP EXIT.

"The Bidder Group substantively comprises an 8 year closed fund that was raised in March 2011, with a term until March 2019, which can be extended to March 2021 upon certain conditions. We would expect the fund is, or is near to, commencing the process of realising investments, including its shareholding in Realm.

Any purchase of the Bidder Groups interest in Realm WILL NEED TO MAKE A TAKEOVER OFFER FOR REALM given the size of the stake of the Bidder Group, which non-associated shareholders will have an opportunity to participate in.
If such a takeover offer emerges, it may provide an alternative liquidity event for non-affiliated shareholders, AT A PRICE THAT IS, AT LEAST, ACCEPTABLE TO THE BIDDER GROUP".

Note - the CAPS text is not CAPS in the document, but the words are the same.

The Performance Guarantee was drawn to USD$48.9m as at December 31, 2017.

Conveniently, it seems, it was drawn to around $77m in the months thereafter, with attempts by the Bidder to highlight this as a debt warranting a 12 cent per share reduction in the value as quoted by the Independent Expert.

--

T2 need to announce to the ASX today if they are going to extend the takeover bid beyond the current 2 July 2018 closure date.

They will not be doing so in my opinion, and they have pretty much stated this themselves in recent ASX announcements.

Galt and his mates at T2 are under so much pressure, in my opinion, that's it's not funny (to them).

They have tried to be too smart and it could not have backfired more spectacularly for them.

They tried to buy RRP too cheap and now they appear to under the pump from the Takeovers Panel (see ASX announcements). Who knows who made the original application to them. If it was ASIC then they could be under the pump from them also.

They stuffed up in regards to FND also, and now have no access to the $20.09m cash their holding was worth until atleast 30 November 2018.

They probably thought minority shareholders would just roll over and accept any bid they made.

As each day goes by I see a takeover by T2 become less and less likely, particularly if the comments about the closed end fund are correct (there is no reason to doubt them in my opinion).

They would need to have everything closed up at their end before March 2021 (at most 2 years and 9 months from now).

I would rather retrieve value for my shares then, given they would be selling at a price they are happy with, as opposed to a takeover offer below the estimates of the Independent Expert.

Taurus would not wanting to be waiting too long to sell the mine, as the longer this drags on, those in the market will be in a stronger bargaining position if Taurus is a forced seller.

If this bid does lapse, then the spotlight is going to be on the actions of the RRP board going forward.

It is clearly not in the best interests of ALL Realm shareholders for the shares of RRP to remain suspended.

All shareholders should not be denied a market for their shares if there is no current bid in place, just because it may be of benefit to the major shareholder (they are not the only shareholder).

I challenge any one to convince me otherwise!

(If any one wants to think what RRP could of been, go and have a look at the 12 month price chart of WHC).