Agreed that $20 share price is a little crazy at this stage.
Agreed that an institutional investor will dilute our share holdings when they need to raise capital later...
However, once they raise capital, it will be for production. Given that at production stage the average company is EV/tonne of around $1.94 that's a hell of a lot higher than the EV/Tonne of 4 cents that we are currently at..
Given where they are at the moment, and assume that the exploration is around 30% less than indicated exploration target, say around 800m tonne instead of 1.1bn, then the stock should be worth around $1.30 at this stage.
They have a great story to tell here and once that capital raising happens, it will only be a matter of time before coverage is undertaken by a brokerage house. Also, look at the directors, most have very good experience in coal. The newly appointed director Mr Arima, former starter of a coal company (coalspur) with a market cap of $1.2bn... He just put in around 1m of his own money.
I should note that, this valuation is only based on the lublin project... I Haven't taken into account the other projects mining lead, zinc, silver etc.
Once the market in general stabilizes and America fixes this fiscal cliff and Greece gets their aid and Spain seeks their bailout (which the market will force it to by pushing up the yield on their bonds), I expect this stock to be doing okay.
I'm an analyst so I watch economic conditions extemely closely, with the help of a good team. PDZ coal story is great for many reasons and one of those reasons is that it is in poland where labour costs are no where near as high as in Australia.
PDZ Price at posting:
69.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held