WBT fundamentally should be trading at 7-8c range given where 4DS is trading. And WBT would actually deserve a premium since it’s More advanced on the R&D front. But the current discount of say 40-50% from where it’s trading is due to 2 factors in my opinion: 1. Potential CR. WBT will need to tap the market for more equity. It has about $3.5m cash which is not sufficient to cover next say 24 months burn rate. So I do expect a raise in the next couple of months (hopefully on the back of a good announcement?) 2. Potential overhang of the shares. Since about 600m shares are out from escrow, close to double the mcap, there has been a concern that shares will just be dumped into the market. That has been the case for months now. I think that some of those shares, I would guesstimate about 15-20% were already sold in the market. These are investors who held WBT from pre liaising days and of course would want to cash out! So I think the big wave of Aussie investors selling already happened. In terms of the 102 capital management shares which according to the annual report are the shares held by the Israeli investors, those are about 400m I believe. Of which 280m shares are held by the 2 main shareholders CTW and Bornstein. Looking at the other names on the register we can see few investors which I doubt will sell - prof James Tour Chariman Dadi Permluter, Coby the CEO, Yossi Keret, precious CEO and board member and Amir Regev, Ex CTO. There are few others which I’m not sure what they would do but that’s no more than 100m shares.
So bottom line conclusion- probably we have about 400m shares which are overhang.
Of which I would suspect 50-60% would be holders and not sellers so I think we are talking about 100m-150m shares which would go into the market in the next few months. That’s about 10% or float. Should not be impacting so much!!!i assume also that the major holders would like to block trade the shares rather than dump so no impact on the float!
I would also Guess that some of the shareholders may voluntary escrow their shares for a longer period. Which should be positive impact.
When this issue is resolved I think we will see 1-2C spike in the price.
IMHO
I still think we stabilise at 6c+ in the near future ex capital raise
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Last
$3.19 |
Change
-0.100(3.04%) |
Mkt cap ! $353.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$3.31 | $3.45 | $3.18 | $4.002M | 1.207M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 19867 | $3.19 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$3.20 | 4150 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 4676 | 1.920 |
2 | 7000 | 1.915 |
3 | 23879 | 1.910 |
3 | 4434 | 1.905 |
25 | 104490 | 1.900 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.945 | 4000 | 1 |
1.950 | 2979 | 1 |
1.955 | 2979 | 1 |
1.960 | 2979 | 1 |
1.965 | 2979 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 15/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
WBT (ASX) Chart |