thats the thing you dont know,however when sp. movement is out...

thats the thing you dont know,however when sp. movement is out of step with the ,we will call it "the reality of a situation it creates a fear of something unknown" if you look at some of the recent rises in other stocks like ehl gns gpt
gmg iof to name but a few the common trait is a rise without substantial support from ann. or completely out of step with the emotion of the market,and there are many different methods used,the one thing they all have in common is the amount of movement required to be succesfull,risks are high in the hedge business so rewards are very high ,anyway the minimum simple movement spread is 30%.

what i find equally interesting today is discussion by some analysts and journos about the gfc and how they were aware of the problem 18months ago,for the most part i think they were aware of growing concern of risk on thin spreads against enormous levels of debt and no subprime real estate loans did not cause this catastrophe called the gfc. no sheer avarice,self feeding through the greed of hedge funds
pushing spreads on whole sectors.ppl ,investors or traders always want to believe it was their decision to buy that contributed to the outcome of sp.movement,well it simply isnt so,so although i am not a grand proponent of buffett or benjamin graham it is clear some stocks have better management.

in the case of reits i believe they are genuinely undervalued and more analysts are in agreement unfortunately all this positive sentiment will attract hedge funds,look at gpt very recent sp. movement up and down,when mof crashed to 7c and mqg to 15.75 i believe the hedge positions living within the register just like any other parasite were forced out due to the urgent need for cash or alternatively after watching mqg recover the need to create cash quickly and the strategy was certainly dramatic in either scenario.hedge funds aim to make 2-300%
profit or more on some strategys however risks are high

so i wish i could provide a difinitive answer unfortunately
i cannot,however i do calculate trading spreads using hedge profit spreads my last one after the recent bounce was a retrace to 31.5 -32 and then down,unfortunately to play this theory it requires a very large selldown and move back in on a minimum of 2.5c movement on an accumulation strategy,and at the present time i am not prepared to exercise the strategy due to risk,although at some point i might sell if there are better ways to use capital.

and is it hard to believe in your chosen strategy while it seems so many other plays slip buy, absolutely and you might have it wrong, i certainly did with vpg afg and numerous other stocks,but in mqg mof and other macquarie based models i have tremendous faith in their management ,particularly risk management and macquarie bank appear excellent in that area and do i regret not buying at 15.75 when i had the opportunity absolutely, so i am committed to something i think has considerable distance to run mof,with th opportunity of significant dividend return against my costbase,which hopefully in the future will provide a stream of risk capital to utilise should i so choose