Hi KloggGood post. Just to follow on from your analysis:The last...

Hi Klogg

Good post. Just to follow on from your analysis:

The last 4 years have averaged capex of 12.5c/share. I haven't analysed the specifics of this capex, but I would guess it is mostly stay-in-business capex as over the same period ROC has gone from 19% down to 14% while profits have increased marginally.

Using your profit forecast of 31.5m or 26c/share, take out the capex to get to FCF and you're left with 14c/share. Assuming an 80% FCF payout ratio you're left with a dividend of about 11c/share or a yield of around 2.9% at today's prices.

For a company facing some regulatory issues, increased competition, and questionable growth prospects I would be asking for better value than a p/e of 15 and div yield of 2.9%.

Gralynchett