oxx overpriced to the max, page-13

In a Matuku success case, what will OXX be worth?

Based on 17.5% holding of 65m bbl mean recoverable, $25 per bbl net in gnd value gives $284m plus another $200m of implied value for their share of the string of pearls prospects in also in 51906.
Add another $40m for misc investments and leases, $20m in cash gives total of $544m.

Fully diluted for the ctg shares, 225m less the 36m treasury shares gives a approx value of around $3.00 per share. Other upside will come from increased COS of the Karoro and Kokako leads (50% currently of over 220m bbls) but thats an issue for another day. Lets say Matuku has a weighted COS of 25% (conservatively I'd suggest) so in perspective, OXX has a 1 in 4 chance of 1500% upside compared to a failure case of 25% drop (to cash backing level). Looks like a OK deal to me but each to his own.