Axiomax: "I'd like to see operating cash flows above $13M for...

Axiomax: "I'd like to see operating cash flows above $13M for FY12 because that is a sign of a healthy company to have cash flows a bit higher or more over the NPAT."

Yes. We would like to see healthier cashflows too, however, AZG is not likely to have $13mil positive cashflow for FY'12. Just looking at the quarterly reports will tell you that. No one is expecting AZG to have a strong free cashflow amount for FY'12. Afterall, they are still growing.

s2096914: "Not to burst anyones delusions but one should realise that the shareprice is gonna get crushed in the near term"

Lol. I wish I could help you pick the bottom of the market. Picking the bottom would be like reading tea leaves. Probably reading tea leaves are easier. :) Anyway, we can only invest on the back of fundamentals. At some point in time, fundamentals will take centre stage again and investors will invest on the back of growth, earnings, cashflow, profitability, balance sheet strength etc.

Quantum129: "You said:
"but some of the mum & dad investors are 'over shares' and have decided to place their investing funds elsewhere" How do you know? What have you seen that makes you say this?"

Easy. 1) If you look at the small cap end of the market, you will probably find a lot of brokers who do the selling are: Commsec, E-trade, Patersons, Bell, RBS Morgans etc. Whilst some of these trades are made for institutions, most of these brokers tender to retail investors. (This is a general comment and not specific to AZG).

2) The level of margin lending loans have more than halved. According to various news articles etc. most margin lenders have halved their loans, and in most cases, what remains may only be an eight of the boom time peak in 2006-2007.

3) A flurry of listed fixed interest investments have hit the markets over the past 3+ months. These issues were snapped up by income chasing investors. There would have been a shift from some equity positions into these instruments.

There are various other obvious points, but I guess you get the point. No doubt there are still retail investors in the market, but there are fewer of them actively buying in this market.

Psychiatrist: "According to the plan he receives no performance incentive if market cap is below $60m, $1.8m between $60 and $80m......"

Scott will not receive his bonus payment. Market cap. is too low. Robert Wilde might receive some. There is an additional dilution for the 2nd tranche of the payment (in AZG shares) for the acquisition of Arccon (I can't find the document now, but somewhere in my head tells me the dilution is approx. 20% based on a VWAP price (last 5days of FY'12) of approx. $0.15) However, this is already known by the market too and it has been priced into the current share price. Is there a margin of safety? There sure is.


Axiomax: "Not looking good on the technicals here 3 times as many want to sell than buy......"

Fundamentals will rule in the longer term. Always remember that. Another thing to remember---> Don't use the depth screen as a gauge activity.

Hope this helps. AZG will have their quarterly appendix out later this month. That will give us some insight as to whether they have hit their guidance numbers for FY'12. Secondly, & more importantly, when they deliver their results in August, the outlook commentary (if any) will give us a sense of what they are capable of achieving in FY'13.


That's all for now. As always,

Happy investing.