Nick - maybe it makes it a worse situation that premium increases haven't supported the ITR a bit more. If you compare the underlying ITR against h1 15, it is down just under 30% on pcp. In the FY15 analyst pack, the swing factors between underlying and reported appear to be the following: reported reserve releases; Natural hazards allowances vs long run allowances; investment income mismatch; and a few other smaller items including restructuring expenses.
The operating expenses ratio has also been reasonably stable at 22.5 to 23.5 (by my sums) for the last two years, but seems to be blowing out, but this should be the most manageable thing for Suncorp management. (Compared with loss ratios for example).
I've shorted it - may regret it tomorrow. Todays news IIOR would have an impact of $120m plus on NPAT. I don't really think the uITR ratio plunging is a good omen for how things are running, and suspect that the last CEO might have given the new CEO a hospital pass.
You might be right about the clearing of the decks with the new CEO. We'll see how it runs. Your timeframe may also be very different to mine.
Nick - maybe it makes it a worse situation that premium...
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$19.72 |
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