Just revised my analysis to take in the F16 results and to summarise - this one's a gem!
The key point is the outlook for 25% growth in cash EBITDA, which is outstanding on the back of a solid F16 result.
A few bits that jump out of the result:
- A (-$6.7m) impact from revaluation of land & building adds to the story that the underlying operation is in brilliant shape.
-Average establishment revenue per hectare increased by 29% - only the best businesses can increase prices and continue to grow
- Cash balance of $107m or $0.33 per share. Plus the cash settlements expected in F17 H1 will bolster cash balance further. Great opportunity for further MIS buy-backs and increase TFC share of ownership, plus gives plenty of cash to establish future plantations with less requirement for MIS sales to fund plantings. As referenced above, the patient will be rewarded big time on this one!
- 5.4 million trees on the estate - up 17% YoY. Big rewards for the patient!
- All metrics on slide 23 of the investor preso are brilliant. Yield per tree, Oil yield and most importantly TFS ownership % - Excellent!
I have this one valued at $3.20 by the end of F17 and $4.50 over 4 years.
If Mr Market sends it below $1.50, I'm maxing out the mortgage.
TFC Price at posting:
$1.61 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
