Hi guys
EVG is becoming more undervalued by the day now that gold is not only rising in USD but also AUD.
It also appears that the stag selling is nearly over.
Some quick and nasty number crunching:
Keeping profits in USD from the recent 10/11 presentation:
Presentation stated: $16.7m annual profit (ave) @ $900oz
INITIAL project life 6.7 years
60koz is attributable to EVG (92.5% of project)
Now that POG is ~$1,200oz
Adds $18m USD per year to profit (ie 60koz x $300)
$30m capex spent by EVG will also be repaid by project
Thus LL has fundamentally changed NPV to EVG:
Annual profit now USD = $34.7m
Total project profit (initial 6.7 year life) = $232.4m
Plus capex return = $30m
Total cashflow back to EVG over initial project life = $262.4m USD
NPV of the INITIAL life of the LL project using a 12% discount rate is now USD $155m !!! Market cap? AUD $27m
Add:
- Possible further increases in POG
- 3 x additional projects (Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru)
- Additional life from LL project servicing small neighbouring mines
Risks:
- Construction and commissioning delays at LL
- POG
- Sovereign risk
Given that:
- Lowest cost quartile globally
- Construction started
- LL project fully funded
- Macro gold outlook
IMO still a very undervalued company with massive upside.
Cheers
John
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