OSH Chart, page-4

OSH is in a weird position.

It has gas, some oil a,d liquids from gas with a plant at pretty much capacity and efficiency Fully financed long term with enough small bits that a world cash crisis would have to be really disastrous before they had too much to roll at any one time.

So oil , gas or equivalents locked in. $ locked in and you have to wonder what teh variables are. If they discover craploads of really wet gas next to existing pipeling or infrastructure all it does is add to resource but doesn't earn income and only value to shareholders is if they are to be taken over where it will be given a value . Any expansion of plant with more trains comes at a marginal cost so they should be world competitive if they expand .

Finance locked in and knowledge of resource , politics etc lowers risk and

So that leaves long term gas price increase as main variable. That just doesn't seem to have great pressure on it. Will there be a lot of pressure environmentally or politically for more gas fire power around the world? More industrial use of gas? Just how short of base load energy will teh region become and how quickly will other technology eat away at edges of peaking demands through "battery "storage , load shedding pumpable hydro etc. Just how beneficial will quick start up compact gas fired power generation to complement newer enviro technology to ensure capacity and fall over protection.?

Do they build local gas to hydrogen plant and export trendy enviro hydrogen as a liquid or ammonia to store hydrogen without pressure vessels ?? What industry in PNG could use the gas- refining - or other lower skill level options. , How many large ships around world will possible start using gas for propulsion in international shipping?

As much as I love OSH I am always wondering what will be the catalyst - if ever- if any that gets full value for them and will drive the shareprice as getting extra resource in the ground will extend life of plant and thus lower input of processing cost per unit of gas over the long term but only a rise in the gas price will directly benefit OSH cashflow now and it will take time for it to appear beyond existing hedges .

Fund managers hate PNG risk, so many fund managers have to chase volatility and OSG seems to range trade but has a disconnect to rest of sector so it is a tough one to know at any one point what is going to drive OSH.

Truth is that you can't recreate or invent what OSH has even physically or politically for a fifth the current market value but that asset is only ever valued on what return it can produce. Just such a crap circumstance that russia etc flooded gas market , usa stuffed oil prices with OPEC playing same game to keep cashflow and economy going as if oil was north of $75 and aussie at .75 then all debt would get demolished so fast and cash straight to bottom line. For OSH to invest now and expant trains etc so to take a gamble on increased demand and increased pricing so it has gas and oil on stream if the / when the price rises if a gamble for the patient investor but meanwhile the trend is for taht investor to ignore that and to play elsewhere and pop in at the last minute and ramp the price till overheated , play the volatility and then run off to the new game. OSH would be a classic takeover , finance and hold for the canadian or norway NZ or any other soverign wealth funds as it would provide a stable income and single commodity group and hedge for 20 years and still has upside.

Guess when they can buy electricity assets and infustructure with govt counterparty and income guarantee in politically safer countries like stupid Australia they don't need to risk PNG?

What catalyst for increase in price other than oil/ gas and currency against USA have I missed or am underestimating?