Opportunity with Windimurra Vanadium Project which seems in trouble

I have bought in TMT last week. I also hold SFM shares for their vanadium potential and close proximity to Windimurra Project of Atlantic (private co.).

I believe the next vanadium producer of the world will be one of those projects in Meeline suit (see the map below). I know Windimurra Project's issues have been mentioned here but I want to go into  little bit more detail to analyse the recent situation and see if TMT has anything to with it. 

I believe Windimurra Project will not be able to start the production next year as they don't have the high-grade ore to feed their plant. I they don't want to end up in disaster again they will have to chose one of these options;

1. They will have to buy high grade DSO form one of the close explorers (TMT or AVL), or
2. They will have make a JV with TMT or AVL and relocate the Windimurra plant to the Gabanintha location of TMT or AVL. (I think relocation cost would be about $20m)

I don't think TMT or AVL would be happy to sell their high-grade ore to Windimurra project as their own project would be worthless if you'd do that. Then the second option is being more viable option to both Atlantic and TMT or AVL as they have the high grade vanadium but not the others in the region. 

We can discuss on this issue and analyse the possibilities on this thread. 

Most of the major vanadium projects are in the same region as part of Meeline Suit of Murchison region with 3 of them have completed Prefeasibility Studies. AVL and TMT are the most advanced with high grade vanadium resources. 

There is only one project in very advanced stage, it is Atlantic's (private co.) Windimurra Vanadium Project. 

Atlantic Vanadium Pty Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Atlantic, acquired all the assets of the Windimurra project, including the mining leases, plant and equipment and related assets at the Windimurra site. Atlantic executive director Tony Veitch said the company estimated it would cost about $150 million to bring the fully approved project back into production in Q1 2020, noting about $700 million had been spent on Windimurra to date by its previous owners when it failed three times by different reasons since 2000. 





ATLANTIC'S WINDIMURRA VANADIUM PROJECT
Atlantic is now owned by the billionaire indonesian businessman Anthoni Salim who was Atlantic's major shareholder and substantial creditor, and the holders of $US335 million ($431 million) worth of senior secured notes over a restructuring package when it was a listed public company in ASX. 

Atlantic is the latest in a long line of companies to fall victim to the Windimurra vanadium project, which has shredded reputations and burned hundreds of millions of dollars over its troubled history.

HISTORY OF WINDIMURRA VANADIUM PROJECT

It originally entered production in 2000 under Xstrata and partner Precious Metals Australia, but was closed three years later because of falling vanadium prices, a rising Aussie dollar and production problems.

Rebadged as Windimurra Vanadium, PMA regained control of the asset in 2005 and spent more than $100 million rebuilding it, only to collapse in 2009 short of completion.

The former ASX-listed Atlantic finished the task but a fire in 2014 again halted operations.

Atlantic collapsed but re-emerged in 2016 as a private entity under the control of Mr Salim. He was a major shareholder and creditor of the former entity.




ATLANTIC ACQUIRES WINDIMURRA

In May 2016, Atlantic Vanadium Pty Ltd, a new wholly-owned subsidiary of Atlantic, acquired all the assets of the Windimurra project, including the mining leases, plant and equipment and related assets at the Windimurra site. Windimurra is a fully approved world-scale vanadium mine with historic investment in plant and infrastructure in excess of A$500 million.

The Windimurra project is currently on care and maintenance with a structured infrastructure preservation program in place to maintain the integrity of key equipment on site. The budget for the job is well over $120m (Provided by one Salim's private companies; Droxford International)

Windimurra is expected to be back in production in the first half of 2020, producing 7750 tonnes of vanadium pentoxide a year over an initial 25-year minelife.

Read article for more; "Vanadium surge opens window for Windimurra - The West Australian"

PRODUCTION PROBLEMS OF WINDIMURRA PROJECT

As mentioned above, the production problems was there Xstrata times since 2000.

Windimurra Project still have productıon problems as it always have. 

The latest problem with the plant was explained in the article below,

 

“Vanadiumprice boom offers hope of Windimurra revival”, The West Australian

 

“Windimurra’s historical production problems stemmed from poor recovery rates, resulting in lower than expected volumes and higher operating costs.”

 

It is well known by the Vanadium explorers of Meeline Suit and vanadium experts of the same area that Windimurra’s historical production problems was because of poor recovery rates, resulting in lower than expected ore grades and low high-grade ore volumes, resulting to the higher operating costs.

 

According to my research Windimurra Project still has the same problem as they could not find a economically viable high volume high-grade ore in their own leases yet.

 
ATLANTIC TRIES TO FIND HIGH GRADE DSO ORE FROM OTHER PROJECTS
(while they are still drilling on their own ground to find more high-grade ore to feed their plant)

After making further research, I have concluded that Atlantic is in talks (offtake or/and JV) with some of the other vanadium project owners in the Meeline Suit area as their only option to operate the mine in an economically viable state is to buy additional high-grade DSO (Direct Shipping Ore) from the projects in the region. 

One of them was AVL. We can see that an interview with Vincent Algar, Managing Director of AVL says "We have an open dialogue with Atlantic and the Windimurra team. There are good and long-standing relationships between members of our respective teams. Windimurra has indicated publicly that they must proceed with a review process to re-open the mine and plant. Having use of an operating Windimurra processing plant for Gabanintha concentrate products would be the fastest way for AVL to get Gabanintha into the production of vanadium"

We don't know if there are any talks between Atlantic and TMT. 

AVL and TMT projects are 300km far from Windimurra Project. It is not going to be economically viable to ship DSO ore to Windimurra, and also it would not be a smart action for both AVL or TMT to dig out the low grade ore out to reach the high grade ore at the bottom of pit and ship only the high grade or to Windimurra. That would kill their own projects.