Hi nursery,
You askedfor it!
WithEdenCrete at a crucial stage in its successful commercial roll-out, and as asubsequence, both EDE and TAS as well, I believe that potential and existinginvestors are in a bit of a dilemma at the moment about what to do. Therefore, Ithought it might be a good idea to going into some detail, in order to offersome well-intended assistance (not a buy or sell recommendation). Although mostregular posters will definitely not be interested in what I have to say, perhapsthere may be some readers who might find the following interesting and possiblyeven helpful.
This willprobably come as a surprise to you, and probably to all other regular HC postersand readers as well, however, with regard to recent EdenCrete developments, my opinions and/or personal convictions are no longer ofconsequence.
Up untillast year, my opinion was simply an interpretation of information contained inthe regular EDE ASX announcements. Due to the ASX’s strict rules on accurateand full disclosure, this I took to be factual evidence, and for the most partit was. I then formed an opinion based on my own interpretation of thisevidence, basic common sense and extensive business experiences. Having saidthis, my extensive business experience was not in the concrete or constructionindustry, which is where I made my fatal error (I should have listened more toBeton here on HC, who had a far better knowledge of the time frame, which has turnedout to be dead right).
Generally,most statements we make are assertions of a fact, an opinion, a belief, or a prejudice.The usefulness or the quality of our statements can be improved or diminishedby the nature of the assertion, depending on whether the fact is verifiable. Onceagain, in the early days of Eden’s CNT discovery and the development ofEdenCrete, I assumed that the information contained in the various EDE ASXannouncements was always factually correct. However, as I always do, and justto be on the safe side, I also researched this evidence via third parties, suchas the GDOT, in order to ascertain whether the information contained therein wasbeyond argument, and so that I could assume that everything I read was correct,and then ultimately post my conclusions on HC etc.
Factsprovide crucial support for the assertion of an argument. However, facts bythemselves are worthless unless we put them in context, draw conclusions, and,thus give them a meaning. Due to my limited knowledge in the concrete andconstruction industries, I have now realised that the conclusions that I drew inat the time, were based on a fair amount of industry inexperience, and thus werein part fatally flawed (hindsight is a wonderful thing). Evidence of this becameclearly apparent when I attempted to foresee both a time frame for thesuccessful commercial roll-out of EdenCrete, and subsequently where I also thoughtthe EDE SP should be over the coming years (both of which I got horribly wrong).This was folly and I still cringe today at my naivety in attempting to do so,and even more so, by being so stupid to post this all on HC for all to see andjudge. In my defence, my time frame and SP forecasts were a judgment based onfacts, specifically the production timetable regularly presented by GS in Eden’svarious ASX announcements. I simply made an honest attempt in drawing areasonable conclusion from the factual evidence present to me and indeed everybody.
Before Imove onto the present situation which has changed dramatically, I would likepoint out that, unlike an opinion, a belief is a conviction based on a personalfaith, morality, or value. Such “belief” statements are often called"opinions" because they express viewpoints, but they are not based onfacts or other evidence. They cannot be disproved or even contested in arational or logical manner. Since beliefs are inarguable, they cannot serve asthe thesis of a formal argument. They will only be useful to the audience that sharesthose beliefs. Another kind of assertion that has no place in seriousargumentation is prejudice. A prejudice is mostly a half-baked opinion based oninsufficient or unexamined evidence. Unlike a belief, a prejudice is testablei.e. it can be contested and disproved based on facts.
Moving ontothe present situation, and with specific regard to my opening comment “myopinions and/or personal convictions are no longer of consequence”. I no longerhave my own personal opinion or conviction, rather, I have placed my 100% trustin the fact that the ASTM , the EPA, the GDOT, the FHWA,MARTA and Parchem have all done their own exhaustive testing and owndue diligence and thus placed their absolute 100% trust, not only in EdenCrete,but also in GS, EDE, and to some extent in TAS as well.
The reason thatI have abandoned my own opinions and personal convictions, is that although Ihave learnt a lot more about the concrete and construction industries, and althoughI still have a very good understanding of EdenCrete etc., the aforementioned sixcompanies/organizations have way more expertise, information and resources attheir disposal, and thus are in a far better position to make a well-consideredjudgement and form an opinion about EdenCrete than I ever will. I personallybelieve that their opinions and actions should be treated by everybody with theutmost respect, which unfortunately is not often the case on HC. I believe thatit is high time that every HC reader, whether an intending or an existinginvestor, also makes a clear decision on who they prefer to believe.
Based on whereEdenCrete currently stands with the GDOT, the FHWA, MARTAand Parchem (the CODOT and Korea also look highly likely to soon join theparty), the writing is on the wall that sales orders will significantly increaseover the remainder of this year and well beyond. Anything else would mean thatnot only has GS made a serious miscalculation, but far more importantly, theGDOT, the FHWA, MARTA and Parchem have all collectively made a massive mistake.Once again, every HC reader, whether an intending or an existing investor,needs to very soon make a decision on who they prefer to believe.
At thispoint, I must very much emphasise that although I am a 100% believer in GS andthus EdenCrete, EdenPlast etc. as well as EDE & TAS, the actions of theASTM , the EPA, the GDOT, the FHWA, MARTA and Parchem speak far louder than GS’swords ever will.
Unfortunatelylife is not a straight line. There are always ups and down, and most often,things do not go according to plan. The primary challenge is to learn from allthis and accept things as they are, and then adjust to these unforeseenchallenges and try to turn them to your advantage. This I have done. Those whoare still living in the past and are still far too preoccupied with theoriginal and simply very flawed time frame, as well as the level of the SP,should move on.
Every SP iseither too high or too low, and as such, it is in a constant state ofadjustment. This is called volatility. This will continue to be the case forEDE and for TAS due to the disruptive nature of EdenCrete (and quite soonEdenPlast) which will always lead to a polarization of opinions. The latter isa good thing, and providing it is factually based, an exchange of opinions isalways welcome and worth debating.
Nursery,you asked me a pretty simple question and I have now unfortunately written a verylong and at times rambling post (I had a couple of hours to spare at Genevaairport). Your initial question was what my opinion is regarding the current position,the future and a timeline for the events to unfold. My answers are as follows:
Current Position:The current situation for EDE and TAS, chiefly due the recent extremelypositive events concerning the commercial roll-out of EdenCrete, has never beenbetter. This bold statement is entirely based on the recentactions of the GDOT, the FHWA, MARTA and Parchem. Nothing more, nothing less!
SP: Oncethe RI has been successfully the completed the SP will stabilise and risesteadily and almost continually over the next few years (I personally considerthe current SP to be very undervalued). This forecast isalso entirely based on the recent actions of the GDOT, the FHWA, MARTA andParchem and the presumption by me that the EDE and the TAS SP’s will be entirelysales and earnings driven in the future, which is common sense, as well as basicand sound economics.
Future andtimeline of events (primarily based on the recent actions of the GDOT, theFHWA, MARTA and Parchem): First half of 2019: a pick-up in speed with theregard to the number of orders being received. In the second half of 2019: amajor increase in the number and size of orders, particularly in the US fromthe GDOT, the CODOT and a host of additional US DOT’s. KC Industry also joinsthe fray and EdenPlast is released to the market. In 2020: plant opening inAugusta and more of the same with regard to orders and Eden thus becomingcash-flow positive at the end of the year due to substantial sales of EdenCreteand also EdenPlast. The first institutional investors begin taking up keypositions on the EDE and perhaps also the TAS share registers, with a takeoveralso a possibility. Potential sales and distribution agreement with a majorEuropean company.
In closing,whilst I might have got things horribly wrong with the time frame and my associatedSP predictions, I can say that from the outset (2014), I correctly predictedthat EDE’s CNT’s as well as EdenCrete would have a huge future, be taken upexponentially in the US, and that other countries would follow as soon asEdenCrete was up and running in the US. I also suggested in 2017 that EdenPlastwould become the next commercially available and economically viable product,and I also suggested that the battery/energy storage R&D project would bethe next product in the pipeline.
Wishing youand all HC readers many wise and profitable investment decisions, and a happyand healthy 2019.
Over andout for another few months.
MB
(20min delay)
