I have no idea whether earnings will be up or down this year,...

I have no idea whether earnings will be up or down this year, but they made 3.23c last year. The stock is most likely on a forward P/E of somewhere between 1.1 and 1.3x.

20% dividend distribution would be around 0.6c a share.

If they don't pay a dividend, having declared that they will, the Australian independent directors must resign.

If they pay an interim, the shares have to double. I don't know if they will, but it would be insane not to pay something. Maybe a third in the first half, two thirds in the second.

If they don't pay an interim, but keep talking about the final, I doubt that much will happen until then.

The only other wild card is whether they actually make an acquisition this year. Seeing as the $50m cash is being valued at zero, a $30m deal in theory should double the share price in its own right. I doubt they will, but if they did it would be instant validation of the cash.

But I am new to this stock. Common sense may not apply, the board will do the bidding of their masters, and the shares will gradually drift below $10m market cap.

To me, the risk/reward is attractive, but it depends on things completely unrelated to how the business itself performs.