Here's the way I see it. But I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, hopefully this will be close though...
If Mbila can't be renegotiated well we will have sunk a considerable amount of money into it but we'll save the rest owing...
We have a brilliant asset in Kangwane, with at the very minimum 200Mt proven resource (that's Central alone but anyway...)
So it's pretty binary to me, Mbila is a flop but we don't need to pay anything more and hopefully Kangwane will be funded from offtake etc as per the company's long-standing advice, or we renegotiate terms for Mbila going forward based on the fact the original study was not worth the paper it was written on.
Either way, the share price at present represents a mix of shareholder fear and a shocking lack of understanding by the company as to how to communicate the positives to the market and a God awful, overly complex, ballsup of a purchase contract for York etc etc. I still don't understand it, so no funds will support it. I pray they have at least got that right this time around.
I'm not trying to be overly optimistic because I'm as pissed off as anyone else, but I do still see intrinsic value in the assets.
HWK Price at posting:
4.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held