I'd say price is being led by AGL at the moment. Gas isn't...

I'd say price is being led by AGL at the moment. Gas isn't likely to be much affected by this; for example, it's still down from where it was at the beginning of the month, so wouldn't expect much movement due to this - thus, agree they'll probably stay around the 15.5c mark (equivalent value is currently 15.45c).

As for refusal, the answer is both. If AGL want, they can negotiate a better offer (and if you get a refusal, there'll probably be some reasons given by some major holders to encourage negotiation), or AGL can just walk away to come up with another strategy that doesn't involve MOS.