oil prices rise on nymex, ice futures: up 2.9%, page-2

I'd say price is being led by AGL at the moment. Gas isn't likely to be much affected by this; for example, it's still down from where it was at the beginning of the month, so wouldn't expect much movement due to this - thus, agree they'll probably stay around the 15.5c mark (equivalent value is currently 15.45c).

As for refusal, the answer is both. If AGL want, they can negotiate a better offer (and if you get a refusal, there'll probably be some reasons given by some major holders to encourage negotiation), or AGL can just walk away to come up with another strategy that doesn't involve MOS.