A very good analysis, bookend. It's also worth keeping in mind...

A very good analysis, bookend. It's also worth keeping in mind the difference between the cash profits and total profits. Total profits also reflect the increasing value of the forests as they grow, and the increase in asset valuations as the oil price used for calculations increases closer to the market rate (it is currently much lower). Any further increase in oil price will also add to profits, and I consider this to be highly likely due to the market situation I outline below.

This is one stock I have studied in great detail, and consider it to have the best outlook over a 10 year timeframe of any of the hundred or so I have studied (perfect for my super fund to last through my retirement). However, I agree it may not be the best investment for those with a short term timeframe. Here is just a small part of my analysis, covering only the business model and market situation, to keep my post from being too long:

Strong competitive position:

	Column 1
0	No other known sustainable farming operation
1	Natural forests in southern India are declining as they are harvested
2	Artificial sandalwood oil not used for top quality perfume/cosmetics
3	TFC has only pharmaceutical grade oil capability
4	Will have 80% of world supply until 2025, when it is expected to have a monopoly at least to 2032
5	Very difficult and 15 years for new competitors to become established

Moving to a safer business model:

	Column 1
0	Traditional business of forest establishment for investors is rapidly declining as % of profit
1	TFC owns and self-manages around one third of all managed forests
2	Product sales revenue to increase from $27.7M to around $500M within 8 years
3	Management fees increasing by 15%pa as forests expand around 15%pa; A safe business
4	Demand for forest ownership from institutions and HNW investors still growing due to competitive outlook
5	Royalty flows for pharmaceuticals (Benzac) set to grow

Market to expand to match supply:

	Column 1
0	Currently all being used by Galderma for acne OTC products in USA
1	China has strong unmet demand for sandalwood wood
2	Other OTC products ready for partnerships & launch when oil available
3	Top quality perfume and cosmetics companies look for sustainable supplies
4	On 5 year timeframe, TFC is seeking FDA approval for several products

Built-in Growth:

	Column 1
0	TFC able to add 1500ha pa, to an existing 10500ha; Also assets on existing acreage continue to grow and add to profits
1	Management fees grow as acreage expands and harvesting increases
2	Huge growth in harvesting rates to come

Multiple Revenue Sources Reduce Risk:

	Column 1
0	Traditional Forest Establishment Fees for Investors (currently $80M rising 10%pa)
1	Management Fees for care of forests (currently $23M rising 15%pa)
2	Product Revenue (currently $27.7M rising >4x within 2 years, then another >5x in 8 years)
3	As product revenue grows, more markets will be supplied adding further diversity
4	Royalties on pharmaceutical sales

Multiple Target Markets Reduce Risk:

	Column 1
0	Highly sought after product for Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, perfume, wood, religious ceremonies
1	Larger harvests will diversify geographies of sales

I hope this helps other long term holders.