Well let me take a stab.I am concerned that if they dont solve...

Well let me take a stab.

I am concerned that if they dont solve the production of their own power they become a bit riskier as they increase their sales. I never understood buying a coal powered station but after looking at the presentation it seemed that they are at risk if they dont at least have a base load - the peak stations dont give them a base that they know they can produce for their clients and only buy a percentage. It makes logical sense - the greater your gap between committed and contract sales without committed and contracted supply you have to buy more on the market rate = higher risk.

So my view was that they had to get that parcel - but they dont have the finance in place - so I was surprised that they did not or could not find a partner that would make their bid compliant.

Then after AGL knock-back they were in the hunt again. However AGL have taken on review so back to no home for them.

I think they need the best coal assets if they are to have coal and given the customer base I would also think alternatives like wind are just too expensive per kw hour.

So the conundrum to arrange finance for something you may not get would dilute earnings by a huge amount as cash does not get good returns. To have a non complaint offer is like no wearing the right clothing to a party unless someone really takes pity on you you don't get to enjoy yourself you are on the fringes.

Why this expose - well I think its what the share price is doing.

I think that having woken up to the gap in their business model - I dont see the $2.80 in 2014 or 2015 or really until they solve this risk.

Floating off the under-performing gas and other assets wont really do anything for it.

So I think if AGL win we are into the $2.18 to $2.30 range.

If we get to be at the table because of the AGL issue and then can put together our bid and raise capital - I think we could see $2.50 but that is predicated upon a rights issue that will bring it back to around $2.30. However the upside on $2.30 in my opinion is huge and I would see 2015 2016 hitting the $3.00 - somewhere in there as we can go full ball to the SME targets and not be at risk for a huge cost of supply on the market in the event something happens and the price explodes for a day or two.

interested in others views.