After having spoken to various parties this is what I got as...

After having spoken to various parties this is what I got as information- Its my own distillation as it is subjective - no-one categorically knows where the volume for sale is coming from until Tplus 3.

1. There has been a fair bit of trades over the past few months since the mac gen process started that suggested that the share was receiving some trading attention - day trading frequency trading etc.
2. Concern has been expressed in regard to Oakley as the contract for supply is with AGL and the contract to supply gas to it is also AGL. Given the gas shortages and pricing and fact that the contract ends January 2015 creates a significant uncertainty. If AGL gets MacGen then Oakley probably wont be renewed and in fact ERM has flagged that they intend using it for their own use. Is is that profitable if the price of gas goes up? Who will supply it everyone looks a bit short.
3. The rights issue for a bid of $1,5 billion is a big number - there are 239 million shares in issue. they have $235 million in cash and if they get Macgen they can release most of that as the committed cash as guarantees will fall away.However essentially you would assume that they would have to have $500 million in cash. That means they need to raise $270 million. When the share was $2.40 @ 85% that a price of say $2.00 and you would have to issue just over 1 for every 2 held. Every 10 cents we drop the problem amplifies - @$1.85 you are looking around $1.50 per share - thats below the IPO price of $1.75 - that in itself brings into question whether they can continue to pursue Macgen. Thats 186 million shares or a ratio of 3 for every 4. The additional problem being that its unlikely that they can raise this from existing shareholders so would shareholders vote in favour of an issue at these levels - probably not.
4. The EGO adventure has not unfolded and there may well be more surprises - The MEL investment is stalled and in fact their gas sales operation is not been as easy as first thought.
5. add to that a downgrade on growth and that is another issue.

So all in all the plan that was coming together seems to have hit a few snags given things unfolding and not enough time for the market to get clarity so many are not prepared to invest more until they have certainty around how the funds would be raised and the dilution they may suffer.

One thing I have learn't over time - the market hates perceived uncertainty.